A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
